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You've Got Mail: Charging Into 'Monday Night Football'

Topics include Monti's plan, a potential trade, and helmet slogans

JT Mailbag 1016

With the Cardinals playing next Monday, we had an extra day to mull the mailbag. We'll be back to our regular Tuesday cadence next week -- so mere hours after the Chargers game. Anyway, questions have been edited for length and clarity. Don't forget to send a question for a future mailbag with at least a first name and last initial.

Also, speaking of games on Monday nights:

From Derek Quimby:

"Hey Darren, I'm a big fan of you and the Cardinals. What kind of philosophy do you feel Monti is approaching with this team? I like Monti, but I feel like he has overpaid some FA players, but than leaves $20+ million sitting on the table. Is his approach about building through the draft and supplementing through free agency? If so, does that mean Monti won't invest in any big-level free agents?"

Let me clarify a couple of things. The Cardinals have $20 million of cap space maybe. It's not like they have a pile of $20 million unused in a closet. But yes, his plan is build through the draft and supplement. Every good team does that. One of the reasons is because if a "big-time" free agent hits the market, it's because their current team decided they were not worth the money that player could get elsewhere. That's true of any free agent. Some free agents will hit, others don't. That's the nature of the whole thing. Take cornerback J.C. Jackson, who was a "big-time" player everyone wanted the Cardinals to sign when he was a free agent. The Chargers signed him. He was a bust.

Ossenfort's plan with his 2024 free-agent class was to get mid-range guys who could lead in the locker room and who had been consistently healthy. Unfortunately, both defensive linemen are banged up, as is Jonah Williams. Their injuries are not recurring, so it's bad luck. Could I see a "big-level" free agent this offseason? Sure. Do I think it's a guarantee? No. I don't know who is out there and what money they want. I do think Ossenfort will be spending more next offseason to ratchet up things.

From Michael Johnson:

"Hi Darren, I've been a Cards fan my whole life and try not to be pessimistic even after a loss like that. Seeing as how we have the money, why not try and swing a trade with a struggling team for a player that might be looking to move on to a team who would offer them a new deal (edge Haason Reddick, cornerback Jaycee Horn of the Panthers, etc)? It's insane to think that our edge rushers and corners are going to suddenly start playing at a much higher level, so if we don't push for any trades it seems to me Monti is basically saying he's OK with a 5-6 win season which it looks is where the team is headed at this point."

I don't think Ossenfort would say he is OK with that. But what is the cost for those guys aside from the new contract -- one you could in theory give a player in the offseason. Giving up picks for a GM who wants to build through the draft isn't ideal. I'm not saying there will not be a trade. But they have to play better too -- they weren't one player away Sunday. Or against Washington.

From David B:

"It was clearly documented that Jordan Love does not do well when pressured. So, where was our rush on Sunday? I can't remember a time in the first half when we rushed more than four. Then, midway through the third quarter, we finally had a big push, and Love ran up the middle for a first down."

That second point offsets your first kind of. And they did bring the house on his final touchdown pass -- which was still a touchdown pass. The Cardinals said over and over before the game that the Packers were great at going deep over a defense's head, so I am guessing they wanted the extra defender in coverage. I understand the issue with the pass rush, and it is not a surprise it had issues pressuring Love. According to Next Gen Stats, the Cardinals pressured Love on 11 of his dropbacks. Coincidentally(?), the Cardinals blitzed 10 times.

From Ben S:

"Hi Darren, hope you don't mind indulging a two-part question.

  1. How would you grade the draft acquisitions that have had meaningful number snaps so far?
  2. You had a chap in a recent mailbag that suggested he might 'root' for another team if the Cards don't pull up their socks. Is this typical of sports fans over there (in the U.S.)? The idea that you'd switch affiliation is complete anathema to me -- you stick with your team through thick and thin -- suffering through the lows just makes the highs even sweeter!

Thanks for all your work."

Thank you Ben. Here is a two-part answer:

  1. I've never been a "grade" guy. I assume you are talking about this year's draft class? Obviously we haven't seen Darius Robinson, and everyone is waiting for more from Harrison. Max Melton is getting more and more defensive work so hopefully that's a good sign. Tip Reiman has a regular role. But that's it for now. I'd like to check back in with the group late in the season.
  2. I am assuming (lotsa assuming on this one, my apologies) that "pull up their socks" is a euphemism for playing better. I find that almost all of the time, people that threaten to change team allegiance do not. Or if they do, they weren't the die-hard they thought they were in the first place.

And don't think I don't see you trying to earn brownie points with our social team with that exclamation point usage.

From Pete Shore:

"I feel like all our problems, offense and defense, comes down to the fact we have no pass rush. Defense, obviously because we can't get home. And the offense spends long periods of time on the sidelines so Kyler and the gang never establish a flow. So the question is what do we do?"

If you are asking for in-season additions -- significant ones -- I don't know if that is coming. Could they make a trade? Perhaps. It would help if the Cardinals, when they are on offense, have some long drives of their own.

From Bruce Chamberlain:

"Hi Darren, I noticed the Packers had their team name on the back of their helmets while the Cardinals had a mix of players with Cardinals and some with slogans like Stop Hate, Black Lives Matter etc. How are teams chosen to display those slogans? Does the NFL determine which teams display slogans? Do the players have any say on what is on the back of their helmet?"

It was something that came about with the league's Inspire Change campaign. Players are not required to do it, but they are given a choice to a) have a slogan and if they do b) pick the slogan.

From Wil Smith:

"Hello, Darren. First, thanks for the mailbag; I look forward to it each week. My wife and I were really surprised by the lack of Connor usage against the Packers this past Sunday. What's wrong with Conner? My greater concern is have we really reached a point where we're deciding games are over? Last week against the 49ers, things looked pretty dire and we used that as motivation to ride James Connor to victory. What makes this game different? Thank you again for the mailbag. I'm a huge Cardinal fan and I appreciate your coverage each week."

We won't know until Thursday with the injury report. But I also think the Cardinals got far enough behind it made more sense to use third-down back Emari Demercado, and there was a point where Conner was getting extra tape on his ankles so maybe they were being precautionary. We will see. I know this: Conner has proven he can be a workhorse and the Cardinals have shown they will ride him when they need to.

From Michael T:

"Hello Darren. We have been here before and there is 11 more rounds left in the fight. It's clear that the pass rush needs the most help but now the OL is suspect as well. How soon do you think help is coming? (Robinson/Williams) Also do you think that Adams will be starting with Colon being the swing tackle?"

I think they hope that Isaiah Adams eventually earns his way into the starting lineup, but right now, I would think -- assuming starting LG Evan Brown is OK after tweaking his ankle Sunday -- that Colon remains at right guard and the Cardinals continue to sprinkle Adams in here and there for some experience. Neither are tackles; the swing tackle is Charlie Heck. I can't speak to Darius Robinson or Jonah Williams; the former needs to show something at practice and the latter actually has to be activated for practice.

From Slade Brorman:

"My conspiracy theory: Guarding each team's WR1 is tough, and playing DB in the NFL can be mentally discouraging. Monti brought in Sean Murphy-Bunting to take the heat for his young DBs. The Cards spent six draft picks in the secondary the past 2 years. SMB was brought in to serve a 'Jacoby Brissett role.' Am I stretching things to cope?"

1) You gotta understand I'm not big on conspiracy theories. 2) It feels like you are overthinking stuff. Your first sentence is absolutely correct. And the implication of your third, that the Cardinals have drafted all these DBs to be their secondary, is true. I think they signed SMB to be a solid cornerback if he could. I think he's had bumps so far yes, but I think he isn't helped when the pass rush doesn't have the consistency they need. Regardless of whether it is SMB or a draft pick back there, the coaches want to develop them to play well. I don't think the coaches care who ends up being the best out of that.

From Michele T:

"I was very excited about Monti's first draft class and the current group. However, it doesn't seem like we've seen any breakout stars among this mostly solid group. My expectations may be a bit out of line as I gaze across the league and see/hear other rookies making big contributions. What are your thoughts on last year's and this year's draft classes? Have the Cardinals kept all of their draft picks from the last two seasons? Give me hope or a reality check (or both?). Appreciate all you and the team do to keep us dedicated fans in the know."

I was disappointed we didn't get a chance to see BJ Ojulari. I think Paris Johnson Jr. was a good pick. I think it is fair -- at this point -- to say there is not a breakout star, but I think Johnson is trending there and the potential is there for a few others, and that includes this year's two first-round picks. I'm not going to go over every guy, but right now, every single guy that was drafted is either on the roster or on the practice squad. The low bar -- in my head -- for a good draft class is at least three guys who are major contributors over a period of time. The more guys, or a breakout star, only ups that standing. I absolutely believe each class has that chance to have more than three in each.

From Chris Judde:

"Hi Darren! As an avid follower of the Cards (ever since Ben Graham walked into the building after leaving my beloved Geelong Cats in the Australian Football League) and an equally avid reader of your mailbag, a small favour to ask from those of us who follow the team from Australia and often religiously avoid spoilers all through the working day on Monday (noting kickoff times will shortly shift to 5am/8:05am/8:25am Monday on our east coast) before watching the games after work. The team's podcast feed recently added the Locker Room Show which drops not long after each game and includes spoilers in the title. As an alternative to unsubscribing from the feed (or calling in sick every Monday to watch every game live), would you be able to have a word with the folks who title that pod and suggest they run with something more general so as not to spoil things for us Aussie fans? Thanks mate!"

I can't promise anything but I will pass the word along. It's a fair point.

From Will Carter:

"I've rewatched the last five weeks a couple times (before Green Bay) to look at what might be ailing the offense. I studied the center and guard pulling run to the outside left or right out of shotgun in its truest form. I found that of the 36 times they ran this play, 24 of those 36 netted a total of 6 yards. Why are we still running it if it's only a 33 percent positive production chance? I'm just a fan, so it's hard to understand."

I'd love to know what the other 12 got; if you are probing and probing and then one pops, that's kind of what a running offense is, right? Mostly though, this is pretty in the weeds and I am not a fan of talking about a single aspect -- or in this case, a single concept of a play, in a vacuum. When were these runs called? What was the score? What came of those drives? The team is breaking this down with their analytics department so I have no doubt they are aware of how the plays are resulting and if things should be tweaked. We also don't know if they would analyze it the same -- you mention (in the unedited question) you think the Cardinals are tipping their play but what if it is instead a feeling the blocks aren't executed correctly?

From Susan C:

"Kyler seemed to have a solid game, despite poor weather, no run game, and some fumbles. Hate seeing fans who try to blame him for a team that just isn't there yet. If the NFL ended today, who would be the top five Cardinals QBs of all time? I'm sure Kyler is on there."

An interesting question, because it covers more than a century and wildly disparate styles of play. He's absolutely in the conversation. There's no question he's got the most athletic talent of any QB ever. I'd put Kurt Warner on there, and Neil Lomax. Jim Hart. Carson Palmer? Do you put Kyler over Jake Plummer? I think that's probably the pool you are pulling from.

From William Flamand:

"Hi, Darren! As a fan base, how can we be so unaware of the state of this team? Sure, the wins and the great moments tend to rise our expectations, but before the season starts, anybody who expected the Cardinals to be 4-2 after six games would have been called crazy. Being 2-4 isn't that bad considering the quality of our early opponents. If there's one thing that is surprising (or frustrating), it's the way MHJ is deployed, but other than that, everything seems normal considering Ojulari and Robinson aren't playing."

I can't speak for the fanbase -- nor would I want to -- but if fans don't have a level of expectation for their team, that's probably a huge issue in itself. Are there times I try to bring in a little emotionless commentary? Yes. But it isn't just fans who are disappointed right now. Players and coaches are too. That is clear. Some of the disappointment isn't just about wins and losses; I believe if the Cardinals had played well against the Commanders and Packers yet lost the conversation would be different. All that said, I don't have an issue with a fan like yourself who carried a "realistic" view of things coming in. There will always be a wide-ranging perspective among fans.

From Clark D:

"Hi Darren. We only saw Marvin for two targets, but they were a telling two targets because it seems to be more of the same with Marvin. Does he not know the plays? I'm the biggest Kyler questioner in the Red Sea, but at this point if anything goes wrong between Kyler and Marvin, I'm believe it is Marvin's fault. What's going on?"

What is going on is Harrison is a rookie learning the game. There are more times than you'd like where Kyler and MHJ aren't on the same page; you can only hope that continues to improve as we go (I think it will although if MHJ misses some time with the concussion that'll be on pause). For me -- and, with a nod to the answer above, I get it if some fans aren't going to be as patient -- I want to see how Harrison is playing by season's end and where that on-field relationship is in January. Five-and-a-half games aren't a big enough sample size for me.

From The Walker:

"Darren, can you shed some light on how the Cardinals evaluate/grade players and analytics.

  1. Do the Cardinals create their grades and analytics?
  2. Do the Cardinals use NFL analytics?
  3. Do the Cardinals use outside sources such as PFF for grades and analytics?
  4. Is it some combination of sources?"

From K Carlson:

"Was the pass-rush win rate statistic developed by Pro Football Focus, a football analytics company known for its advanced metrics and grading system or is it an NFL-derived metric? It's my understanding that PFF introduced this metric as part of their broader analytics to evaluate how often a pass-rusher beats their blocker within 2.5 seconds, providing a more context-driven measure of a player's effectiveness beyond just sacks and pressures."

It's always exciting when a debate emerges from the comment section and ends up in the mailbag.

The pass-rush win rate is a stat created by ESPN, using the NFL's information through Next Gen Stats. It's possible PFF has something similar; I do not know. The Cardinals, within their analytics department, do have some proprietary numbers and stats that they use, but they also use outside sources to help supplement and/or fill in blanks. (PFF has raw numbers that teams can use, for instance, that aren't necessarily grades or stats but, for instance, how many times a player has lined up in a certain place on the field.)

From Ryan Courtney:

"Zay Jones is going to become our No. 1 WR. Not in title, that'll still be Marvin. But in function. I think he's going to quickly emerge as Kyler and Petzings No. 1 option. That guy is so good and is a vet. For as talented as Marvin and Michael are, they are youngsters. I think Zay is about to really make an impact; watch."

OK. (I'll agree to disagree here.)

From Matthew Stroh:

"Hey Darren, hope you are doing well. Haason Reddick, yeah the team totally needs that drama. We have a great locker room full of team-first guys who play hard and are young and learning. As a fan I love to see the growth in the players. The national media keeps saying how injured the Rams, Seahawks, and 49ers are, but don't talk about how injured the Cardinals are? Why doesn't national media ever talk about Arizona Cardinals injuries?"

Mostly because, other than as fact, it doesn't make sense to talk a lot of injuries. It's a line when you are talking about a game, but every team gets injuries. Nobody is talking after the season about teams that got hurt; they talk about who won the Super Bowl and who went deep in the playoffs. Every coach I've ever covered has talked about how "no one is going to feel sorry for us" and they don't. And shouldn't.

From Captain Lou:

"With the weekly O-line attrition, does Monti still have D.J. Humphries' cell number?"

I'm sure he does. I am guessing Hump still isn't healed from his ACL tear, however.

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